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3yo Gelding · 11-4
Listowel · Kinisla Charleville Cheese 3-Y-O Hurdle · 2m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Nottingham | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Stratford | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chepstow | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Brighton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 01/06/2026 | 12th | 250/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |