7
Minella Buoy
3yo Gelding · 10-12
Listowel · Kinisla Charleville Cheese 3-Y-O Hurdle · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA45 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA47 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Tipperary | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/09/2025 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 62% | -0.10 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.02 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 31/08/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |