11
Wipeawayyourtears
3yo Filly · 10-5
Listowel · Kinisla Charleville Cheese 3-Y-O Hurdle · 2m
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA59 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | BHA59 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA54 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA54 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA54 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Naas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 21/08/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 10% | -0.51 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 13/07/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.19 |
| 31/08/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.13 |