3
Easter Bonnet
5yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 117
Listowel · Kinisla Cheestrings Irish EBF Mares Hurdle · 2m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA118 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Navan | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-14 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/06/2026 | 12th | 5/4 | 93% | 48% | -0.46 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 84% | -0.05 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |