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18

Chosen Shant

10yo Mare · 10-3 · OR 97

Listowel · Kinisla Bloom Feeds Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 100y

#3

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thriving mare whose 4 career wins have come at Wexford. Wasn't at all extended to notch her second handicap chase success of the year there last time. Fancied to follow up off a very tempting hurdle mark (now 3 lb lower than over fences).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 16/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 104 · 2m50y Sft 155 · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 104 par16/04C8OR 104BHA102 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 102 · 2m159y Goo 148 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 102 parC8 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 86 · 2m Goo 153 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 86 par16/05C8OR 86BHA99 @ Listowel 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 99 · 2m Yie 158 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 99 parBHA86 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 86 · 2m100y Sft 143 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 86 par8/0686OR 86BHA85 @ Wexford 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 85 · 2m Goo 153 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 85 parBHA91 @ Wexford 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 91 · 1m7f110y Gd 159 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 91 par22/0791OR 91BHA98 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 98 · 2m180y Goo 168 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 98 parBHA93 @ Wexford 28/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 93 · 2m3f100y Yie 153 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 93 par28/0893OR 93projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28WexfordBHA931st1st0
2026-08-07WexfordBHA985th5th0
2026-07-22WexfordBHA912nd2nd0
2026-06-30WexfordBHA851st1st0
2026-06-08RoscommonBHA867th7th0
2026-06-01ListowelBHA993rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/041/0622/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1994% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20266th40/10%0%0.00
14/05/20267th66/10%40%+0.40
16/05/20264th150/10%25%+0.25
01/06/20263rd25/10%78%+0.78
08/06/20267th16/116%54%+0.38
30/06/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
22/07/20262nd10/382%92%+0.09
07/08/20265th11/486%69%-0.16
28/08/20261st15/261%100%+0.39