15
How's Ellie
5yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 104
Listowel · Kinisla Bloom Feeds Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 100y
#16
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Tramore | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Galway | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1950% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +19.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |