19
Run For The Border
6yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 96
Listowel · Kinisla Bloom Feeds Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 100y
#9
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | BHA95 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | BHA95 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA95 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | BHA95 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA92 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA92 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1956% of fieldRange 3-18 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 93% | +0.01 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 31/08/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.20 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 90% | +0.35 |