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12

Shirzan

4yo Filly · 10-11 · OR 107

Listowel · Kinisla Bloom Feeds Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 100y

#13

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Flat bred who was suited by the emphasis on speed when landing a juvenile event at Limerick (2m, soft) in March. Likely to have finished closer than the 5½-length beaten distance had she jumped more proficiently on handicap bow at Kilbeggan (19f) latest, her mark perhaps not as stiff as feared.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 14729/12C?C0 @ Leopardstown 03/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m Sft 1553/03C?C8 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m Sft 15631/03C8C8 @ Cork 10/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 108 · 2m1f65y Goo 150 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 108 par10/05C8OR 108C8 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m4f Goo 13915/08C8BHA107 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 107 · 2m3f Goo 162 · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 107 par3/09107OR 107projClass-projected finish: 9th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03KilbegganBHA1076th6th0
2026-08-15Tramore?1st1st0
2026-05-10Cork?6th6th0
2026-03-31Limerick?1st1st0
2026-03-03Leopardstown?3rd3rd0
2025-12-29Leopardstown?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/123/0331/0310/0515/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1939% of fieldRange 1-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -7.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/12/20257th80/10%57%+0.57
03/03/20263rd40/10%71%+0.71
31/03/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
10/05/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
15/08/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
03/09/20266th6/168%67%-0.02