1
Splashing Out
8yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 120
Listowel · Kinisla Bloom Feeds Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 100y
#19
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA120 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA113 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA113 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Tramore | BHA107 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Downpatrick | BHA107 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 1911% of fieldRange 5-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 29/07/2026 | 18th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |