1

Beyond Forgiveness

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Listowel · Kinisla Dairygold Maiden Hurdle · 2m 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Pulled up sole start in points. Showed more than on hurdling debut 9½ lengths fourth at Ballinrobe (2¼m) last time. Was well positioned in a race where few got into it, though, and he'll need to settle better to make more impact up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 1663/08C8C8 @ Ballinrobe 24/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 2m2f44y Gd 16624/08C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Ballinrobe?4th4th0
2026-08-03Cork?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0824/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20266th150/10%71%+0.71
24/08/20264th40/10%79%+0.79