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5

Goodmancon

6yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 103

Listowel · Kinisla Dairygold Maiden Hurdle · 2m 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In the process of showing improved form when falling 2 out at Limerick (2½m) in July. Not at same level either start since, despite shaping/jumping better when 12 lengths fourth of 9 in Tramore maiden latest. Bit to find at the weights, even with promising claimer taking over.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Killarney 17/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f Yie 16817/07C?C0 @ Tramore 15/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m80y Gd 168C0 @ Tramore 09/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m Yie 1689/10C?C0 @ Clonmel 06/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 2m157y Sft 168C8 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m80y Goo 15820/04C8C8 @ Killarney 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 158C0 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 16829/05C?C8 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 2m4f46y Yie 166C8 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 105 · 2m5f80y Goo 158 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 105 par16/08C8OR 105projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Tramore?4th4th0
2026-08-04Roscommon?3rd3rd0
2026-07-02Limerick?0
2026-05-29Tramore?5th5th0
2026-05-09Killarney?8th8th0
2026-04-20Tramore?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/076/1129/0516/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20255th11/271%33%-0.38
15/08/20256th28/10%44%+0.44
09/10/20257th33/10%14%+0.14
06/11/20254th66/10%67%+0.67
20/04/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64
09/05/20268th50/10%50%+0.50
29/05/20265th28/10%60%+0.60
04/08/20263rd16/116%87%+0.71
16/08/20264th9/276%63%-0.14