14

Labondance

5yo Mare · 11-5

Listowel · Kinisla Dairygold Maiden Hurdle · 2m 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Failed to justify support when 11 lengths fourth on return/stable debut at Ballinrobe (2¾m), running below her fair hurdle/chase form in France. Clearly thought capable of better by shrewd operation.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Le Lion D'angers 21/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 2m2f86y GS 14521/04C?C0 @ Auteuil 27/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m1f87y Ver 14327/05C?C0 @ Dieppe 12/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m5f191y Sft 14512/06C?C0 @ Auteuil 13/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 2m1f196y Hvy 14713/09C?C0 @ Auteuil 01/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 2m5f191y Ver 1451/10C?C0 @ Compiegne 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m3f85y Sft 15020/10C?C8 @ Ballinrobe 24/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 2m6f61y Gd 15324/08C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Ballinrobe?4th4th0
2025-11-11Compiegne?0
2025-10-20Compiegne?3rd3rd0
2025-10-01Auteuil?8th8th0
2025-09-13Auteuil?5th5th0
2025-06-12Dieppe?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0413/0924/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength43%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20254th13/266%73%+0.07
27/05/20254th14/126%63%+0.36
12/06/20252nd11/486%86%+0.00
13/09/20255th16/116%50%+0.34
01/10/20258th16/116%42%+0.26
20/10/20253rd11/271%71%+0.00
24/08/20264th2/189%73%-0.17