IvyArcIvyArc
12

Tribal Thunder

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Listowel · Kinisla Dairygold Maiden Hurdle · 2m 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made the frame in points. Did best of those outside of the quartet who dominated the betting when beaten 26½ lengths on debut at Galway. Longer trip out to suit, though he's a more likely type for handicaps.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR - · 2m160y Yie 1667/09C8
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Galway?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 3-8 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20265th40/10%79%+0.79