16

Urra Mass Rock

5yo Mare · 11-5

Listowel · Kinisla Dairygold Maiden Hurdle · 2m 6f

#16

Rank

Odds

250/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

Timeform

Commentary

Has shown little in a pair of maiden hurdles to date.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 10.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 2m5f180y Gd 15114/06C8C8 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 2m4f Gd 15323/07C8projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Wexford?10th10th0
2026-06-14Downpatrick?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0623/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength2%

Delivery trend -8.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/202610th100/10%18%+0.18
23/07/202610th500/10%10%+0.10