2
Luker's Tipple
5yo Gelding · 11-7
Listowel · Kinisla Kerrymaid Rated Novice Chase · 2m 1f 150y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | BHA77 | 10th | 10th | −0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | +0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 79% | -0.00 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/08/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |