3
Ocastle Des Mottes
7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 130
Listowel · Kinisla Kerrymaid Rated Novice Chase · 2m 1f 150y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C12.6
Today:
Class gap: -5.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA126 | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA126 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA127 | −5 | ||
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-01-23 | Gowran Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Punchestown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength98%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2024 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 65% | -0.17 |
| 15/03/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 12/04/2024 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 61% | -0.13 |
| 04/05/2024 | 19th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 23/11/2024 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 23/01/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 69% | +0.06 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |