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4

Sky Lord

7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 126

Listowel · Kinisla Kerrymaid Rated Novice Chase · 2m 1f 150y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has tended to finish weakly over fences but made the most of a good opportunity in first-time cheekpieces when landing a 6-runner maiden at Wexford in July by a distance after being left clear at the last. Talented enough to win this but questions remain regarding his resolve.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Punchestown 12/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 2m198y Sft 158 · HIGHER CLASS12/0111 @ Cheltenham 11/03/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 2m87y GS 161 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Punchestown 22/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 2m2f200y Sft 16622/11C?C0 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 2m55y Sft 166C8 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 130 · 2m115y Yie 168 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 130 par20/01C8OR 130BHA130 @ Cork 06/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 130 · 2m1f45y Goo 162 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 130 par1 @ Punchestown 30/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 131 · 2m75y Yie 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 131 par30/041OR 131C8 @ Punchestown 07/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 130 · 2m4f55y Goo 154 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 130 parBHA126 @ Wexford 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 126 · 1m7f110y Gd 166 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 126 par22/07126OR 126projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22WexfordBHA1261st7th−5
2026-06-07Punchestown?4th4th0
2026-04-30Punchestown17th-1th+7
2026-04-06CorkBHA1303rd10th−6
2026-01-20Down Royal?3rd3rd0
2025-12-13Fairyhouse?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0113/1230/0422/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/01/20254th15/261%40%-0.21
11/03/20258th50/10%30%+0.30
22/11/20255th13/266%64%-0.02
13/12/20254th4/179%75%-0.04
20/01/20263rd13/891%67%-0.25
06/04/20263rd6/492%60%-0.32
30/04/20267th9/153%68%+0.16
07/06/20264th5/287%25%-0.62
22/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08