12
Bythesametoken
12yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 118
Listowel · Kinisla Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 150y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA118 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | BHA120 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kelso | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Haydock | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Listowel | BHA116 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-08-22 | Killarney | BHA122 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2024 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 02/07/2024 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |
| 04/08/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 77% | +0.01 |
| 22/08/2024 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 10/04/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |