14
Cappa Hill
6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 109
Listowel · Kinisla Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 150y
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA110 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | BHA116 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA116 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Punchestown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength1%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/11/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 05/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 61% | +0.61 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 04/09/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |