2
Jalila Moriviere
7yo Mare · 11-11 · OR 139
Listowel · Kinisla Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 150y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA135 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA131 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Punchestown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Thurles | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 30/100 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 05/04/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 36% | -0.29 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 95% | +0.89 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 31/07/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 58% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |