One Last Tango
9yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 113
Listowel · Kinisla Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 150y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA115 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | BHA116 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-02 | Clonmel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | BHA117 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-08 | Tipperary | BHA116 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Gowran Park | BHA116 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 10/11/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/12/2024 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 55% | -0.01 |
| 26/12/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 21/01/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 08/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 02/12/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |