4
The Banger Doyle
10yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 128
Listowel · Kinisla Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 150y
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA129 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA130 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA74 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Thurles | BHA111 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 42% | -0.16 |
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/02/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 02/08/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 10% | -0.43 |