12

Bonnie Loch

6yo Mare · 11-7

Listowel · Kinisla Farm & Home Store (Pro/Am) Flat Race · 2m

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hinted at ability on debut and stepped forward from that effort when fifth of 10 in bumper at Kilbeggan (19f) 17 days ago. Shortlisted with hood now added.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 1613/08C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 2m3f Goo 1653/09C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?5th5th0
2026-08-03Cork?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength17%

Delivery trend -22.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20267th66/10%63%+0.63
03/09/20265th16/116%56%+0.40