9

Suresuresure

5yo Gelding · 12-0

Listowel · Kinisla Farm & Home Store (Pro/Am) Flat Race · 2m

#13

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

Timeform

Commentary

Not much promise in bumpers but caught the eye when seventh of 17 in maiden hurdle at Listowel in May, finishing with running left. However, was tailed off in novice at Roscommon 11 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 8.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m120y Gd 16426/05C?C0 @ Navan 17/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m50y Sft 16817/11C?C0 @ Fairyhouse 29/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 2m Yie 16829/11C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 2m2f120y Gd 16815/05C?C8 @ Listowel 30/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 16630/05C8C8 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m7f204y Gd 1566/07C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06Roscommon?5th5th0
2026-05-30Listowel?7th7th0
2026-05-15Kilbeggan?10th10th0
2026-04-16Limerick?0
2025-11-29Fairyhouse?8th8th0
2025-11-17Navan?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0517/1129/1115/0530/056/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength58%

Delivery trend +11.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/05/202511th7/163%23%-0.40
17/11/20258th100/10%22%+0.22
29/11/20258th80/10%30%+0.30
15/05/202610th400/10%10%+0.10
30/05/20267th250/10%63%+0.63
06/07/20265th50/10%20%+0.20