1
Bitter Truth
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 71
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/9 | 99% | 60% | -0.39 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |