6
Inca
2yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 69
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-04 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |