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2

Atomic Drop

8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91

Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 100 · 6f110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 100 par5/07C7OR 100C7 @ Del Mar 31/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 99 · 1m Fm 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 99 parC7 @ Del Mar 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 97 · 5f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 97 par30/08C7OR 97C7 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 20/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 97 · 5f110y 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 97 parC8 @ Del Mar 15/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 101 · 6f 120 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 101 par15/11C8OR 101C8 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 13/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 97 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 97 parC8 @ Santa Anita 16/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 6f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 90 par16/01C8OR 90C7 @ Santa Anita 15/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 95 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 95 parC8 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fas 125 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 80 par12/09C8OR 80projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Los Alamitos Racecourse?3rd3rd0
2026-05-25Santa Anita?0
2026-02-15Santa Anita?4th3rd+1
2026-01-16Santa Anita?1st1st0
2025-12-13Los Alamitos Racecourse?7th7th0
2025-11-15Del Mar?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0720/0916/0112/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
31/07/20259th10/147%11%-0.36
30/08/20252nd15/261%89%+0.28
20/09/20256th11/271%29%-0.42
15/11/20256th7/491%29%-0.62
13/12/20257th11/271%0%-0.71
16/01/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
15/02/20264th20/10%63%+0.63
12/09/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30