5
Autism Puzzle
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Del Mar | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2024-06-01 | Golden Gate Fields | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-05-05 | Golden Gate Fields | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-04-20 | Golden Gate Fields | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2024-03-29 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 17/02/2024 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 09/03/2024 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/03/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 20/04/2024 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 05/05/2024 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 01/06/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 08/11/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |