Instinct D' Oro
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 97
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2024 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 08/12/2024 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/06/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 29/08/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 13/09/2025 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 44% | -0.48 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 02/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |