5
Ballyhooligan
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 84
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 88% | -0.06 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/12/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |