6
Alpine Thunder
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 96
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |