4
It's A Factor
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-08-29 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-08-03 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | BHA92 | 4th | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 27/04/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/08/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/09/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |