3
Its A Cinch
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 86
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Del Mar | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 15/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 11% | -0.68 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 08/09/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |