5
Supernal
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 104
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-07-24 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength99%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 02/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 18/05/2025 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 24/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 30/08/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |