7
Lively Girl
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 64
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +12.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |