Melba Montgomery
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 73
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 30% | -0.28 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 17/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 45% | -0.31 |