Surprise D' Oro

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 62

Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Del Mar	?	10th	10th	0	1.0
2026-06-20	Los Alamitos Racecourse	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-04-18	Santa Anita	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-03-08	Santa Anita	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength67%

Delivery trend +7.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/03/2026	6th	8/1	58%	29%	-0.29
18/04/2026	9th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
20/06/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	60%	-0.16
07/09/2026	10th	16/1	16%	18%	+0.02