Mr. Machupicchu
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 104
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-01-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-12-29 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 29/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |