4
Captain Creed
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |