7
El Ondeado
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |