8
Grimes
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 84
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 08/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |