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Old Flag
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 91
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |