8
Nessy
2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 68
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |