4
Crystal Water
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 54
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 18/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 15/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 18/11/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |