7
Strawberry Sky
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 55
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 23/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 15/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |