IvyArcIvyArc
2

Siorai

4yo Filly · 11-10 · OR 97

Plumpton · Dominic Hill Accountants & Thorne Civil Engineers Mares' Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 195y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form on the Flat in Ireland for Jim Bolger. Similar form over hurdles when twice runner-up for her new yard but she did fold rather tamely minus the hood at Warwick in June. Off since but the equipment goes back on, which should help her cause.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 06/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 1m2f90y Goo 1296/05C8C8 @ Cork 20/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m4f Goo 126C8 @ Fairyhouse 13/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 1m3f200y Goo 12713/06C84 @ Musselburgh 15/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 2m3f171y Goo 145 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Stratford 28/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m70y Goo 146 · HIGHER CLASS28/0344 @ Wincanton 12/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m7f50y Gd 143 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Sandown 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 101 · 1m7f216y Goo 144 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 101 par25/041OR 1015 @ Warwick 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 98 · 2m Goo 161 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 98 par3/065OR 98projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-03Warwick54th4th0
2026-04-25Sandown16th1st+4
2026-04-12Wincanton42nd1st+1
2026-03-28Stratford42nd1st+1
2026-02-15Musselburgh45th4th+1
2025-06-13Fairyhouse?6th10th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0515/0225/043/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 350% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -13.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 3. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/05/20253rd25/10%87%+0.87
20/05/20254th12/137%40%+0.03
13/06/20256th12/137%64%+0.27
15/02/20265th11/486%20%-0.66
28/03/20262nd17/255%90%+0.35
12/04/20262nd6/594%83%-0.10
25/04/20266th15/261%29%-0.32
03/06/20264th10/382%40%-0.42