1
Arcturus Flame
4yo Gelding · 11-2
Plumpton · Henners Gallop To Grape-Ness Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 195y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -7.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |
| 03/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 85/40 | 89% | 82% | -0.07 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 85/40 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |