3
Golden Garden
4yo Gelding · 11-1
Plumpton · Prestige Security Executive Protection Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 116y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bath | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Ludlow | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Taunton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 30/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 30/03/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |