1

Premier Fantasy

7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 100

Plumpton · Prestige Security Executive Protection Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 116y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/6

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

98%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Multiple point winner who has matched the pick of his hurdles form back over fences recently, shaping better than previously with cheekpieces fitted when second of 10 in handicap at Stratford (23f, good to firm) just over 2 weeks ago. Obvious claims reverted to hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newton Abbot 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m5f122y Goo 1583/0644 @ Market Rasen 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m7f16y Gd 15819/0645 @ Newton Abbot 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 103 · 3m1f170y Goo 168 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 103 par19/075OR 1035 @ Newton Abbot 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 100 · 3m1f170y Goo 168 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 100 par27/085OR 1005 @ Stratford 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 98 · 2m6f125y Goo 168 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 98 par5/095OR 98projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Stratford52nd3rd1
2026-08-27Newton Abbot52nd3rd1
2026-07-19Newton Abbot53rd4th1
2026-06-19Market Rasen45th5th0
2026-06-03Newton Abbot42nd2nd0
2025-05-30Stratford40

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0619/0619/0727/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/06/20262nd85/4089%88%-0.01
19/06/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
19/07/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
27/08/20262nd2/189%67%-0.23
05/09/20262nd7/163%89%+0.26