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6

French Diablo

4yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 81

Plumpton · Mansell McTaggart Mane Event Handicap Hurdle · 3m 217y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced 4-y-o. Form of his breakthrough success at Stratford (2¾m) hasn't worked out. Did at least run better than on his previous start when beaten 8½ lengths at Worcester last time, and this looks less competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 28/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f124y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS28/1143 @ Newbury 17/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m69y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS17/1235 @ Stratford 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 74 · 2m6f7y Goo 142 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 74 par29/065OR 745 @ Stratford 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 2m6f7y GF 148 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 78 par12/075OR 785 @ Worcester 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 82 · 2m7f Gd 152 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 82 par10/095OR 82projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Worcester55th5th0
2026-08-25Stratford50
2026-07-12Stratford51st1st0
2026-06-29Stratford53rd3rd0
2026-06-03Newton Abbot4+1
2025-12-17Newbury38th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1117/1229/0612/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/11/20256th4/179%29%-0.50
17/12/20258th40/10%22%+0.22
29/06/20263rd22/10%67%+0.67
12/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
10/09/20265th9/276%60%-0.16